Who’s going to win at this year’s Oscars

Last year was a good one for movies. Box office grosses were up slightly from an outstanding 2012, setting an all-time record of $10.9 billion in sales. And the quality of the movies was very high. From “American Hustle” to “12 Years a Slave” to “Gravity” and even “Frozen,” the latest Disney princess movie, there was something for just about any movie taste, and many of them are up for Academy Awards. That should help ratings for this year’s Oscar ceremony, which will be held Sunday at 8:30 p.m., airing on ABC. Ellen DeGeneres will host the ceremony, which could also help ratings as she’s a well-liked talk show host. Last year Seth MacFarlane, the creator of “Family Guy,” hosted in a very polarizing performance, but his presence helped boost the ceremony’s adults 18-49 rating 11 percent. As for the favorites, some of the races, including Best Picture, are wide open, but two of the acting races are all but sewn up. Dave Karger, chief correspondent and host of “FrontRunners” at Fandango, talks to Media Life about who will win, who won’t win, and whether there will be any Woody Allen blowback.

Which of the big races is the most interesting this year and why?

Best Picture. I’ve never seen such a close three-way race before. My heart is telling me “12 Years A Slave” is going to win, but I sure wouldn’t be surprised if it’s “Gravity” or even “American Hustle.” And all three films are so wildly different that it’s hard to imagine how the voters will decide.

Are there any major races with a clear frontrunner? Which ones and why?

Cate Blanchett and Jared Leto are sure things in Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor. Both of their performances are so mesmerizing that you’ve got to feel bad for anyone who had the poor fortune to be nominated against them. By the way, if you’d like to learn more about Jared and many other nominees this year, you can see me interview them on my Fandango “FrontRunners” show!

Are there any categories where you think there could be an upset?

I think “American Hustle” could beat “Her” for Best Original Screenplay. That category is one of “American Hustle’s” best shots at a win, and I think the Academy will want to acknowledge David O. Russell for his fantastic stretch of recent films. Since he’s definitely losing Best Director to ["Gravity" director"] Alfonso Cuarón, this is where he could win.

On a scale of 1 to 10, 1 being awful and 10 being great, how would you rate the quality of this year’s crop of movies? Why?

I’d say eight. There was no film that truly blew me away like “Silver Linings Playbook” last year, but I can’t find one clunker in the batch of nine Best Picture nominees.

Were there any Oscar snubs people are still talking about?

I still can’t believe Tom Hanks wasn’t nominated for “Captain Phillips.” Or Oprah Winfrey for “The Butler.” It just shows you how many strong performances there were.

Do you think there will be any blowback on “Blue Jasmine” after the sexual abuse allegations against Woody Allen were revisited earlier this year?

It certainly doesn’t help Woody Allen’s chances for Best Original Screenplay. But I have a hard time believing too many voters would punish Cate Blanchett for anything they think he did.

How do you think the ratings for this year’s Academy Awards will compare to last year?

We polled Fandango fans and 65 percent said they were more excited to see Ellen DeGeneres host than they were for Seth McFarlane last year. It also helps that many of the big nominees, like “Gravity,” “American Hustle,” “Frozen” and “The Wolf of Wall Street,” were big hits. So I’m expecting a small uptick this year.

Whose acceptance speech would you be most interested in hearing and why?

Lupita Nyong’o. She’s so stunning and articulate. I think she would be so overcome with emotion if she won Best Supporting Actress, but I also know that she would gather herself and deliver a knockout speech.

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