It’s this week that really matters for broadcast

The broadcast networks were rightly excited by the results for their new programs during premiere week.

Seven programs bowed to a 2.0 adults 18-49 Nielsen rating or above, two more than last year. The average for the 11 new dramas and comedies was slightly higher than last year, too, at 1.93.

It underscored the networks’ insistence, oft repeated as digital advertising soars, that television still matters.

But now comes the critical week.

This is the week buyers really pay attention to, when those healthy looking new shows must go out and do it again. And this is the week when so many shows stumble.

“Ratings erosion is always my biggest worry this time of year,” says one buyer.

“There are too many new programs on some nights, and the quality of those shows is uneven.”

Last year, a number of shows saw steep declines in week two. “The Grinder,” for instance, lost a third of its debut rating, while “The Muppets” plummeted by 28 percent. Both were later canceled.

That’s because week one ratings often reflect hype and curiosity. Week two ratings measure the actual quality of the program, because these days people don’t keep watching bad shows.

A couple decades ago they may have, because there were few other choices on television.

A plethora of options beyond broadcast TV

But these days, viewers have an endless array of choices. If they don’t like a new show immediately, they won’t continue to watch it.

They’ll fire up Netflix or play a video game or check out a competing show on cable. With so many choices, there’s no reason to stick with something that they find only mildly engaging.

Of course, another factor that complicates matters is DVRs.

The DVR ratings don’t come in until days after a show has debuted, so networks tend to wait longer these days to make decisions on shows, until they have a few weeks’ worth of DVR data to mull over.

Even so, DVR viewership tends to mirror trends in live viewership. It’s extremely rare for a show’s live ratings declines to be made up for by extra DVR viewers.

That means buyers will be getting an idea when the overnights come out of whether last week’s promising debuts actually have long-term potential.

Tags: broadcast, broadcast premiere week, fall season, new shows, premiere week, television