Trump effect: Political dollars may well fall short

Since even before Donald Trump hopped into the presidential race or Bernie Sanders gave Hillary Clinton a stronger-than-expect push for the nomination, forecasters have been predicting this would be a record year for election spending.

They’re not going back on that prediction. But they are downgrading their forecasts a bit.

Spending on the presidential election has been lower than expected to this point in the year, and that means total spending probably won’t top $3 billion, as earlier forecasts had predicted.

That’s according to Pivotal Research Group’s Brian Wieser, who recently updated his forecast.

He predicts that total 2016 political spending will be up 10 percent from 2012, the last presidential election, to just under $3 billion. He says that’s 20 to 30 percent over 2014.

“While this amount might fall below some earlier projections (including our own, which previously called for 40 percent growth over 2014, or around 20 percent over 2012), at these levels political advertising on local TV would still remain a significant factor for the industry,” he notes.

Presidential spending slows

The reason for the less-optimistic outlook? It’s largely the presidential race.

Trump and Clinton combined have spent about a third as much as the 2012 candidates, Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, had to this point in the race, $139 million versus $423 million.

There are a number of reasons for the disparity.

One is that Trump only began TV advertising within the past few weeks, a big difference with past candidates, who usually spend heavily following their conventions to build on public attention. That was certainly the case for Clinton.

And the candidates are funneling more money to digital, which is a cheaper form of advertising. That means they may not be spending as much to reach the same number of people as they would on just television.

Finally, notes Wieser, “With relatively little fund-raising on the Republican side during this election, there has also been less spending.”

Will political spending slow down?

One question this raises is certainly whether political advertising will continue to grow at the very fast rate it has experienced since the Supreme Court lifted caps on organizations’ donation levels six years ago. In the past 12 years, political spending on TV has more than doubled.

Despite the less-robust growth this year, it appears it’s just a one-time thing. While digital will continue to attract more advertising, Trump is certainly a unique candidate and his approach probably won’t be duplicated by others.

And fund-raising can ebb and flow according to the election. In the next cycle, the Republicans could be doing much better.

Tags: election, Election Day, political, political advertising, political spending, trump