The growing case against holding the upfront

Forecasting the success of future shows is one problem with the upfront: Many thought ‘The Muppets’ would be a big hit. It was a big disappointment.

Change is hard.

Anyone who’s ever tried to lose weight or stop biting their nails or swear off office gossip knows this. It’s comfortable to stay with your old habits, even when you know they’re not particularly smart or efficient or even in your own best interest.

We do things the same way because it’s easier, not because it’s better.

Alas, this applies to the way TV advertising is bought, too.

Buyers and sellers stick with the upfront method of buying the bulk of the ad time before the season starts because it’s the way things have always been done, not because it works particularly well or at all.

Back in the day of three networks, it might have made sense for advertisers to bet much of their coming year’s ad budget in an upfront auction for shows that would not debut until months later, gambling that the shows would be hits.

No longer, not with so many other media options out there that can be bought on the spot based on actual performance.

And just what the upfront can tell us about the state of television is questionable.

The pricing reported each year is largely considered hooey, and no one has a solid idea how much volume is actually sold, because deals made during the upfront sometimes fall apart before an ad ever airs.

“Is the upfront really necessary today?” one buyer wonders. “I don’t think it is.”

A combination of factors has brought the upfront to a critical juncture.

One is new technology. Buyers are interested in trying new, more effective ways of buying, such as programmatic and other automated means, and so increasingly are the networks.

Azteca America introduced an automated system at the last upfront, and NBCUniversal has one rolling out this year. Ideally this will make it easier for buyers to buy the inventory they need at the best price.

Some buyers are resistant to automation, saying it could never replace face-to-face deals, and to some degree that’s true. They will never go away.

But the fact is, over time media buyers will grow more comfortable with programmatic, and eventually it will make up the bulk of TV and other media buys.

“I’m very interested in exploring programmatic for broadcast,” another buyer says.

Another factor impinging on the upfront is the evolution of television. For now, the broadcast networks are sticking with the traditional fall premiere model, but that may not last much longer, now that people watch TV on their own schedules, across a multitude of devices.

That calls into question the necessity for the presentations where buyers, sellers and advertisers schmooze and networks try to sell people on their new shows.

Already these presentations have undergone great change in the past few years. Some networks are eliminating them altogether in cost-cutting moves. NBCUniversal this year is rolling all if its networks into one mega presentation, for instance.

Others have shifted their focus from programming to discussing new modes of advertising, the role of big data, and crossplatform opportunities.

If the presentations go, it will be harder to justify the hoopla of a big upfront selling season.

Finally, the upfront has less urgency than ever before.

For one, there are far fewer must-buy shows on broadcast.

Also, buyers are smartly using the threat of digital video, even if they don’t intend to move their dollars there, for leverage against the networks, and some advertisers, such as General Motors and Procter & Gamble, have even pulled out of the upfront or curtailed their buys sharply.

“With each year, the upfront market seems to extend further in the summer. The urgency has diminished,” says the second buyer.

For the next few years, the upfront will continue. But for how long after that is really anyone’s guess.

Tags: 2016 upfront, automated ad buying, upfront, upfront ad buying, upfront dollars, upfront outdated, upfront spending