Predictions for November sweeps
The four-week period, which begins Thursday, will be won by NBC
October 28, 2015
Fox’s ‘Minority Report’ airs Mondays at 9 p.m.The November sweeps, the four-week period used by local stations to set advertising rates, begin on Thursday, and it’s not a bold prediction to say NBC will win among adults 18-49.
The network has finished first in the demo in all five weeks so far, thanks to the winning trifecta of “Sunday Night Football,” veteran reality show “The Voice” and new hit drama “Blindspot.”
But here’s something that may be surprising: CBS will push its rival.
This week the network got a big kick from new show “Supergirl,” which became the highest-rated new program on broadcast with Monday’s debut, drawing a 3.2 adults 18-49 Nielsen rating.
And when you look at time-shifted viewing, CBS can match NBC. According to live-plus-seven-day-DVR-playback ratings for the first two weeks of the season, CBS is actually tied for first with NBC, since its entertainment shows do so well with DVR viewers.
The majority of NBC’s top shows are seen live, because sports and reality programs don’t tend to timeshift as much.
So while NBC will get bragging rights for sweeps, CBS will stay close and position itself very well for the second half of the year, when it has the Super Bowl and NBC loses “SNF.”
Here are some other predictions for sweeps, based on input from media buyers and observations from the first few weeks of the season.
‘Minority Report’ will be the first show to be canceled
Fox has already slashed the show’s order, but it’s hard to justify keeping a program that has averaged a 0.6 rating the past two weeks on the schedule. The network will give up this week or next.
‘The Player’ will be second
NBC probably will claim it’s not canceling the Wesley Snipes action drama but merely replacing it during sweeps. The truth, however, is that “Player” is dragging down NBC’s otherwise OK Thursday night and the network would be better off running “Dateline” in the 10 p.m. slot.
‘Supergirl’ will grow
The show has good buzz and ratings were actually up in its second half hour. That’s a very promising sign.
‘Crazy Ex-Girlfriend’ will rebound
The CW’s new drama is posting dangerously low ratings. Yet it’s a good program, and the network has proven it will nurture shows with creative promise. As people hear more about “Girlfriend,” its ratings will creep up and the CW will be happy enough to keep it on the air for at least another few months.
ABC’s ‘TGIT’ will reign supreme
CBS’s “Thursday Night Football” wraps up this week (save for one more encore in December), and next week CBS is back to entertainment programming on Thursday. But ABC’s “Thank Got It’s Thursday” lineup will rule the night, despite the continued strength of CBS’s “The Big Bang Theory” and returning “Mom.”
***
In broadcast ratings for the week ended Oct. 25:
Among adults 18-49, NBC averaged a 2.3 rating and a 7 share, followed by CBS at 1.9/6, Fox at 1.7/5, ABC at 1.6/5, Univision at 0.8/3, Telemundo at 0.6/2, CW at 0.5/2, ION at 0.3/1,UniMás at 0.2/1, Me-TV, Estrella TV and Bounce TV at 0.1/0, and MundoFox, Azteca and COZI TV at 0.0/0.
Top five English-language Big Five shows (18-49s): 1. NBC’s “Sunday Night Football” 7.6; 2. CBS’s “Thursday Night Football” 5.9; 3. Fox’s “Empire” 4.8; 4. NBC’s “Football Night in America Part 3” 4.4; 5. Fox’s “The OT” 4.2.
Top five English-language Big Five shows (total viewers): 1. NBC’s “Sunday Night Football” 20.61 million; 2. CBS’s “NCIS” 17.22 million; 3. CBS’s “Thursday Night Football” 17.12 million; 4. CBS’s “The Big Bang Theory” 14.68 million; 5. CBS’s “NCIS: New Orleans” 12.99 million.
Show on the rise: CBS’s “Thursday Night Football,” Thursday, 8:30 p.m. The game between the Seahawks and 49ers posted a 5.9 rating among 18-49s, up 20 percent from a 4.9 the previous week for Falcons-Saints.
Show on the decline: ABC’s “Blindspot,” Monday, 10 p.m. The first-year drama slipped 16 percent week-to-week among 18-49s, from a 2.5 rating to a 2.1.
WEEKLY PRIMETIME AVERAGES BY NETWORK
|
|||||||||
|
Network |
Households |
People 2+ |
Adults 18-49 |
||||||
|
Rtg% |
(000) |
Shr |
Rtg% |
(000) |
Shr |
Rtg% |
(000) |
Shr |
|
|
CBS |
6.1 |
7160 |
11 |
3.3 |
9780 |
9 |
1.9 |
2450 |
6 |
|
NBC |
5.1 |
5920 |
9 |
2.7 |
8160 |
8 |
2.3 |
2860 |
7 |
|
ABC |
4.1 |
4720 |
7 |
2.1 |
6360 |
6 |
1.6 |
2040 |
5 |
|
FOX |
3.0 |
3530 |
5 |
1.7 |
4900 |
4 |
1.7 |
2090 |
5 |
|
UNI |
1.2 |
1400 |
2 |
0.7 |
2210 |
2 |
0.8 |
1030 |
3 |
|
CW |
0.9 |
1080 |
2 |
0.5 |
1410 |
1 |
0.5 |
680 |
2 |
|
TEL |
0.8 |
940 |
1 |
0.5 |
1490 |
1 |
0.6 |
730 |
2 |
|
ION |
0.7 |
850 |
1 |
0.3 |
1030 |
1 |
0.3 |
330 |
1 |
|
METV |
0.4 |
460 |
1 |
0.2 |
560 |
1 |
0.1 |
90 |
0 |
|
UMA |
0.3 |
360 |
1 |
0.2 |
570 |
1 |
0.2 |
290 |
1 |
|
BOUNCE |
0.2 |
190 |
0 |
0.1 |
300 |
0 |
0.1 |
100 |
0 |
|
ETV |
0.2 |
180 |
0 |
0.1 |
280 |
0 |
0.1 |
100 |
0 |
|
COZ |
0.1 |
120 |
0 |
0.0 |
140 |
0 |
0.0 |
20 |
0 |
|
MMX |
0.1 |
90 |
0 |
0.0 |
130 |
0 |
0.0 |
40 |
0 |
|
AZA |
0.1 |
80 |
0 |
0.0 |
110 |
0 |
0.0 |
60 |
0 |
|
*Each rating point is equivalent to 1 percent or 1.164 million homes Note: Viewing estimates include same day (3 a.m.-3 a.m.) DVR playback. Source: Nielsen |
|||||||||
SEASON-TO-DATE PRIMETIME AVERAGES BY NETWORK
|
|||||||||
|
Network |
Households |
People 2+ |
Adults 18-49 |
||||||
|
Rtg% |
(000) |
Shr |
Rtg% |
(000) |
Shr |
Rtg% |
(000) |
Shr |
|
|
CBS |
7.3 |
8530 |
13 |
3.9 |
11680 |
11 |
2.5 |
3170 |
8 |
|
NBC |
5.9 |
6850 |
10 |
3.2 |
9490 |
9 |
2.8 |
3520 |
9 |
|
ABC |
5.0 |
5790 |
9 |
2.6 |
7740 |
7 |
2.1 |
2650 |
7 |
|
FOX |
3.3 |
3870 |
6 |
1.8 |
5350 |
5 |
1.9 |
2420 |
6 |
|
UNI |
1.3 |
1460 |
2 |
0.8 |
2290 |
2 |
0.8 |
1050 |
3 |
|
CW |
1.0 |
1180 |
2 |
0.5 |
1580 |
1 |
0.6 |
750 |
2 |
|
TEL |
0.8 |
940 |
1 |
0.5 |
1460 |
1 |
0.6 |
730 |
2 |
|
ION |
0.7 |
840 |
1 |
0.4 |
1050 |
1 |
0.3 |
340 |
1 |
|
METV |
0.4 |
470 |
1 |
0.2 |
570 |
1 |
0.1 |
90 |
0 |
|
UMA |
0.3 |
350 |
1 |
0.2 |
570 |
1 |
0.2 |
290 |
1 |
|
BOUNCE |
0.2 |
200 |
0 |
0.1 |
290 |
0 |
0.1 |
110 |
0 |
|
ETV |
0.1 |
160 |
0 |
0.1 |
250 |
0 |
0.1 |
100 |
0 |
|
COZ |
0.1 |
120 |
0 |
0.0 |
140 |
0 |
0.0 |
20 |
0 |
|
MMX |
0.1 |
100 |
0 |
0.0 |
150 |
0 |
0.0 |
50 |
0 |
|
AZA |
0.1 |
80 |
0 |
0.0 |
120 |
0 |
0.1 |
60 |
0 |
|
*Each rating point is equivalent to one percent or 1.164 million homes Note: Season-to-date estimates are a weighted average and Live+7 data, except for the most recent two weeks which are based Live+SD viewing. |
|||||||||
TOP 25 PROGRAMS - BROADCAST
|
||||||||
|
# |
PROGRAMS |
Net |
HOUSEHOLDS |
PERSONS 2+ |
||||
|
Rtg% |
Shr |
(000) |
# |
Rtg% |
(000) |
|||
|
1 |
NBC SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL |
NBC |
12.2 |
20 |
14215 |
1 |
6.9 |
20612 |
|
2 |
NCIS |
CBS |
10.7 |
18 |
12438 |
2 |
5.8 |
17215 |
|
3 |
CBS+NFLN THU NT FOOTBALL |
CBS |
10.5 |
18 |
12208 |
2 |
5.8 |
17117 |
|
4 |
SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK |
NBC |
9.3 |
15 |
10856 |
4 |
5.3 |
15680 |
|
5 |
BIG BANG THEORY, THE |
CBS |
8.9 |
14 |
10383 |
5 |
4.9 |
14684 |
|
6 |
DANCING WITH THE STARS |
ABC |
8.1 |
13 |
9408 |
7 |
4.2 |
12498 |
|
7 |
NCIS: NEW ORLEANS |
CBS |
8.0 |
13 |
9361 |
6 |
4.4 |
12986 |
|
8 |
EMPIRE |
FOX |
7.5 |
12 |
8701 |
9 |
4.1 |
12281 |
|
9 |
FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 3 |
NBC |
7.4 |
12 |
8586 |
7 |
4.2 |
12506 |
|
9 |
OT, THE |
FOX |
7.4 |
13 |
8582 |
9 |
4.1 |
12120 |
|
11 |
60 MINUTES |
CBS |
6.9 |
12 |
7987 |
13 |
3.6 |
10705 |
|
11 |
VOICE-TUE |
NBC |
6.9 |
11 |
8004 |
11 |
3.8 |
11280 |
|
13 |
BLUE BLOODS |
CBS |
6.8 |
13 |
7932 |
15 |
3.5 |
10417 |
|
13 |
MADAM SECRETARY |
CBS |
6.8 |
11 |
7935 |
13 |
3.6 |
10812 |
|
13 |
VOICE |
NBC |
6.8 |
11 |
7936 |
11 |
3.8 |
11400 |
|
16 |
CBS+NFLN THU NT PRE-KICK |
CBS |
6.6 |
12 |
7650 |
15 |
3.5 |
10272 |
|
17 |
GREY’S ANATOMY |
ABC |
6.1 |
10 |
7099 |
19 |
3.0 |
8964 |
|
18 |
GOOD WIFE, THE |
CBS |
5.8 |
9 |
6737 |
19 |
3.0 |
8819 |
|
18 |
SCORPION |
CBS |
5.8 |
9 |
6791 |
17 |
3.2 |
9460 |
|
20 |
SCANDAL |
ABC |
5.7 |
9 |
6632 |
25 |
2.8 |
8281 |
|
21 |
NCIS: LOS ANGELES |
CBS |
5.6 |
10 |
6482 |
19 |
3.0 |
8767 |
|
22 |
HAWAII FIVE-0 |
CBS |
5.5 |
10 |
6353 |
22 |
2.9 |
8595 |
|
23 |
SURVIVOR |
CBS |
5.4 |
9 |
6249 |
18 |
3.1 |
9103 |
|
24 |
CRIMINAL MINDS |
CBS |
5.3 |
9 |
6213 |
22 |
2.9 |
8470 |
|
25 |
LIFE IN PIECES |
CBS |
5.2 |
8 |
6017 |
22 |
2.9 |
8467 |
|
Source: Nielsen |
||||||||
TOP 25 PROGRAMS - BROADCAST
|
||||
|
Rank |
Program |
Net |
Rtg% |
(000) |
|
1 |
NBC SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL |
NBC |
7.6 |
9640 |
|
2 |
CBS+NFLN THU NT FOOTBALL |
CBS |
5.9 |
7436 |
|
3 |
SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK |
NBC |
5.5 |
6947 |
|
4 |
EMPIRE |
FOX |
4.8 |
6147 |
|
5 |
FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 3 |
NBC |
4.4 |
5618 |
|
6 |
OT, THE |
FOX |
4.2 |
5339 |
|
7 |
BIG BANG THEORY, THE |
CBS |
3.9 |
4888 |
|
8 |
CBS+NFLN THU NT PRE-KICK |
CBS |
3.3 |
4159 |
|
9 |
VOICE |
NBC |
3.0 |
3853 |
|
10 |
SIMPSONS |
FOX |
2.8 |
3543 |
|
11 |
MODERN FAMILY |
ABC |
2.7 |
3457 |
|
11 |
VOICE-TUE |
NBC |
2.7 |
3450 |
|
13 |
SCANDAL |
ABC |
2.5 |
3114 |
|
14 |
GREY’S ANATOMY |
ABC |
2.4 |
3052 |
|
15 |
FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 2 |
NBC |
2.3 |
2959 |
|
16 |
CBS+NFLN THU NT KICK-OFF2 |
CBS |
2.2 |
2835 |
|
16 |
NCIS |
CBS |
2.2 |
2792 |
|
18 |
BLINDSPOT |
NBC |
2.1 |
2687 |
|
18 |
GOLDBERGS, THE |
ABC |
2.1 |
2717 |
|
18 |
HOW TO GET AWAY W/MURDER |
ABC |
2.1 |
2615 |
|
18 |
LIFE IN PIECES |
CBS |
2.1 |
2636 |
|
18 |
SURVIVOR |
CBS |
2.1 |
2704 |
|
23 |
BROOKLYN NINE-NINE |
FOX |
2.0 |
2564 |
|
23 |
GREAT PUMPKIN, C. BROWN(S) |
ABC |
2.0 |
2515 |
|
25 |
DANCING WITH THE STARS |
ABC |
1.9 |
2451 |
|
25 |
MIDDLE, THE |
ABC |
1.9 |
2454 |
|
Source: Nielsen |
||||
SPANISH-LANGUAGE TELEVISION
|
||||
|
# |
PROGRAMS |
Net |
Rtg |
P2+ (000) |
|
1 |
IMPERDONABLE, LO M - F |
UNI |
11.1 |
2702 |
|
2 |
BANDA, LA SUN |
UNI |
9.9 |
2441 |
|
3 |
YO NO CREO EN HOMBRES M - F |
UNI |
9.1 |
2063 |
|
4 |
MUCHACHA ITALIANA CAS M - F |
UNI |
8.1 |
1869 |
|
5 |
CELIA - .TWTF.. |
TEL |
8.1 |
1874 |
|
6 |
SAL Y PIMIENTA SUN |
UNI |
7.9 |
1883 |
|
7 |
ANTES MUERTA LICHITA M - F |
UNI |
7.9 |
1931 |
|
8 |
SENORA ACERO II - M - F |
TEL |
7.3 |
1833 |
|
9 |
AVENIDA BRASIL - M |
TEL |
7.3 |
1642 |
|
10 |
C. CERRADO-ED. ESTELAR M.WTF.. |
TEL |
7.1 |
1501 |
|
11 |
AQUI Y AHORA SUN |
UNI |
7.0 |
1498 |
|
12 |
BAJO EL MISMO CIELO - M - F |
TEL |
6.8 |
1625 |
|
13 |
NATIONAL TEAM TUE 10/13(S)-10/13/2015 |
UMA |
6.6 |
1776 |
|
14 |
CELIA POR SIEMPRE 10/13(S)-10/13/2015 |
TEL |
5.6 |
1135 |
|
15 |
SABADAZO SAT |
UNI |
4.3 |
961 |
|
16 |
CINE CANTINFLAS SAT |
UMA |
4.1 |
957 |
|
17 |
CINE DE LAS ESTREL SUN |
UMA |
3.8 |
923 |
|
18 |
CINE MILLONARIO …..SSU II |
TEL |
3.3 |
875 |
|
19 |
FUTBOL CENTRAL (PT) TUE |
UMA |
3.1 |
800 |
|
20 |
CINEPLEX (PT) SAT |
UMA |
2.9 |
707 |
|
21 |
CINE MILLONARIO SAT |
TEL |
2.8 |
672 |
|
22 |
FLM FRI 2 |
AZA |
2.6 |
637 |
|
23 |
NATIONAL TEAM (PT) TUE |
UMA |
2.5 |
619 |
|
24 |
CINEPLEX M.WT… |
UMA |
2.0 |
498 |
|
25 |
NINO SANTO SUN |
UMA |
1.9 |
548 |
|
Source: Nielsen |
||||
HISPANIC ENGLISH-LANGUAGE VIEWING
|
||||
|
# |
PROGRAMS |
Net |
Rtg |
P2+(000) |
|
1 |
NBC SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL |
NBC |
8.5 |
2067 |
|
2 |
CBS NFL NATIONAL |
CBS |
8.1 |
2149 |
|
3 |
SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK |
NBC |
5.7 |
1447 |
|
4 |
CBS+NFLN THU NT FOOTBALL |
CBS |
5.1 |
1099 |
|
5 |
EMPIRE |
FOX |
4.9 |
1052 |
|
6 |
FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 3 |
NBC |
4.3 |
1118 |
|
7 |
VOICE |
NBC |
3.5 |
790 |
|
8 |
BIG BANG THEORY, THE |
CBS |
3.4 |
707 |
|
9 |
VOICE-TUE |
NBC |
3.2 |
737 |
|
10 |
BLINDSPOT |
NBC |
3.1 |
611 |
|
10 |
DANCING WITH THE STARS |
ABC |
3.1 |
635 |
|
Source: Nielsen |
||||
AFRICAN AMERICAN AUDIENCE ESTIMATES
|
||||
|
# |
PROGRAMS |
Net |
Rtg |
P2+(000) |
|
1 |
EMPIRE |
FOX |
39.9 |
8612 |
|
2 |
NBC SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL |
NBC |
15.8 |
3343 |
|
3 |
CBS+NFLN THU NT FOOTBALL |
CBS |
14.8 |
3007 |
|
4 |
SCANDAL |
ABC |
14.5 |
2768 |
|
5 |
ROSEWOOD |
FOX |
14.2 |
2812 |
|
6 |
HOW TO GET AWAY W/MURDER |
ABC |
12.6 |
2489 |
|
7 |
SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK |
NBC |
10.5 |
2216 |
|
8 |
CBS+NFLN THU NT PRE-KICK |
CBS |
9.0 |
1763 |
|
9 |
FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 3 |
NBC |
8.3 |
1711 |
|
10 |
60 MINUTES |
CBS |
7.7 |
1490 |
|
* Ratings based on 13.65 million African American TV homes. |
||||
Tags: abc, broadcast, broadcast recap, cbs, fall season, fox, nbc, november sweeps, sweeps, tv ratings
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