Ad forecast: Mobile poised to overtake desktop

Over the past few years, every time a new ad forecast is released, the big headline has been the forecaster’s projection for when internet ad spending will surpass television.

That’s a big deal for sure, since TV has been the dominant form of ad spending for years. It says a lot about where our world is headed.

At this point, it’s a matter of months, not years, until digital passes TV.

And so it may be time to focus on a new major development in advertising: When mobile surpasses desktop ad spending.

It could be as soon as next year, according to a new ad forecast from London agency ZenithOptimedia, which projects that worldwide mobile dollars will hit $99.3 billion in 2017.

That’s more than the $97.4 billion predicted for desktop.

The agency says mobile is growing at a blistering pace, up 95 percent last year and on pace for 46 percent growth this year.

In fact, it’s rising so quickly the agency had to redo its forecast. Six months ago, ZenithOptimedia predicted mobile would surpass desktop in 2018.

“The rapid development of the mobile advertising market since then has caused us to bring that prediction forward by a year,” notes the report.

The development is an example of how ad spending mimics behavior trends. A global survey published earlier this month by ZenithOptimedia noted that people now use mobile to access the internet more than desktop.

And that’s not just in the United States, where smartphones are ubiquitous. China is leading the transition to mobile advertising, which will account for nearly a third of its total ad spending this year.

Next year advertisers in China will spend more on mobile ads than the current worldwide leader, the United States, at $32.7 billion to $30.5 billion.

Interestingly, the trend toward mobile isn’t the only major development in online spending for media buyers and planners to watch.

ZenithOptimedia also forecasts a 3.1 percent decline in display advertising in 2016, following an 8.6 percent gain last year.

Tags: ad spending, ad spending forecast, forecasts, mobile, mobile ad spending, mobile advertising, zenithoptimedia