A stark outlook for Canadian media

There’s been a lot of gloom and doom surrounding newspapers over the past decade, but this may be the gloomiest outlook yet. A new research paper by Ken Goldstein, a Canadian media analyst with Communications Management, makes a stark projection. By 2025, it says, “it is likely that there will be few, if any, printed daily newspapers” in Canada. Goldstein bases much of this argument on troubling circulation trends. The percentage of Canadian households that receive newspapers has fallen from nearly 50 percent in 1995 to just 20 percent last year. He projects that will slip by half or more in the next decade, and if that happens he argues print papers will no longer offer a viable business model. He says Canadian papers must find a way to develop an online business model to support them, something they’ve struggled to do thus far in the digital era. Alas, things don’t look much better for local TV stations in Canada. Goldstein says they too could be a thing of the past within the next 10 years, with many of them losing money. Goldstein talks to Media Life about whether there’s any hope for newspapers, why Canadian broadcasters face dimmer prospects than American broadcasters, and why Canadian radio will hold up as other traditional media struggle.  

What prompted you to do this examination of Canadian newspapers?

We have been tracking media trends in Canada, the U.S. and the UK for some time.

In this case, while daily newspaper trends are part of the content of the discussion paper, our main focus is on how those trends impact on broader questions like “digital divides,” the future of local journalism, and the question of shared experience.

What did you find most surprising or most interesting about what you found?

The trends in daily newspaper circulation and classified advertising are not new, so they basically represent a continuation of previous data. One of the most interesting findings in the discussion paper is to confirm the degree to which the adoption of high-speed or broadband internet is driven by the age groups of consumers.

Are there particular areas of the country where newspapers are doing better or worse? Why or why not?

There are regional and linguistic variations, and there may also be “plateau effects” from time to time, but the overall trend is, unfortunately, as described in the discussion paper.

Obviously circulation has declined at many newspapers across the world in this digital age. But what makes the problem more pronounced or more serious in Canada?

If you read our 2013 discussion paper, you will see circulation declines and the collapse of classified advertising for daily newspapers in Canada, the U.S., and the UK. Canada appears to be slightly farther along the trend line that relates paid print circulation to households.

How are Canadian newspapers addressing the steep falloff in print circulation? Have you seen any ideas that could perhaps extend the life of newspapers?

Too many of the ideas put forward by established newspapers fall under the category of product extensions or re-labeling old practices, rather than a reinvention of the business.

For example, “paywalls” is another name for subscriptions; “native advertising” is a new name for “advertorial.”  The real issue is managing the transition of the news brand from print to online.

Do you foresee the same occurring in the United States for newspapers?

Probably, but it may take a little longer, given the position on the various trend lines.

What are the challenges facing local broadcast news outlets? Again, are these particular to Canada?

The discussion paper outlines the impact of fragmentation and “unbundling” on local conventional broadcast television stations.

However, there are two substantial differences between the Canadian and U.S. situations – Canada does not have a U.S.-style retransmission consent system, and the spending on political advertising in Canada is not as much of a factor in local station revenues.

If local broadcast and local newspapers fade away, how will Canadians get local news? Is there another medium rising in their place?

One of the purposes of the paper is to stimulate more discussion about this very issue.

The problem is not how local news will be delivered, it is how we will pay for the journalism that will report that local news.

What about radio — does it face any of the same problems as newspapers and broadcast?

We noted in the discussion paper that in 2025 radio will still fit within our conceptual definition of “broadcasting.” While there will clearly be competition from alternative sources of audio content, we believe that truly local radio will still have an important place on the dial.

Tags: broadcast, canadian media, forecasts, ken goldstein, local journalism, local media, newspapers, research, tv